Richmond Is Last Chance to Make Chase For Vickers And Busch

They've fought on-track and tossed fighting words at each other off-track, but now Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch are more focused on the fight ahead of them this weekend at Richmond International Raceway.

Busch, a winner of four races this season, and Vickers, a winner of one, stand the best chance to fight their way into the top-12 of NASCAR's point standings at the end of the Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Saturday night. By doing so, they'd secure themselves a spot in the coveted Chase for the Sprint Cup and a chance to race for the title.

But judging by performance of previous drivers on the edge of making it in during Richmond's final opportunity, their chances are 50/50 at best.

The math at the moment is simple. Vickers trails 12th-ranked Matt Kenseth by a slim margin of 20 points, while Busch sits behind by just 37 points. For Vickers and his No. 83 team, the deficit is close enough that should he lead the most laps and win the 400-lapper, Kenseth would have to do no worse than lead a lap and finish second.

If that happened, the two would end up tied. The first tiebreaker in that situation falls to total race wins in 2009 and Kenseth currently holds that advantage with his season-opening wins at Daytona and Fontana. But if Vickers adds a win at Richmond to his win in mid-August at Michigan, both drivers would be tied with two wins each this season. The tiebreaker would continue to second-, third- and fourth-place finishes and so forth until a decisive edge is reached.

In this case, since neither Kenseth nor Vickers has a runner-up or third-place finish this season, it would be extrapolated out to fourth-place finishes, which Kenseth has one and Vickers none, thus giving Kenseth the Chase berth despite Vickers' best efforts.

For Kyle Busch, a difference of one car length -- either in front of or behind him -- could have very well have made the difference in his run to qualify for the Cup.

On lap 123 of February's season-opening Daytona 500, Busch was running nose to tail with Reed Sorenson in front and Kenseth behind when Vickers got turned by Dale Earnhardt Jr. on the backstretch. It began the biggest wreck of the day and snared Busch while Sorenson and Kenseth narrowly slipped by.

Busch led 88 laps that day and easily had the car to beat until the wreck. Had he been able to skirt through and even pull out his average finish at Daytona (18th), he would have scored 69 more points -- plenty enough to find himself in 12th ahead of Richmond. The wreck wasn't his fault, but looking back on it now, the ramifications of his finishing position in that race have wound up being huge.

Had Busch avoided the wreck and finished in his average finishing position at Daytona (18th), he'd simply be battling to hold a Chase spot instead of scrambling for one.

Certainly no one thought the wreck in Daytona -- or any troubles Busch has had in 2009 -- would leave him on the verge of not running for the championship.

Fortunately, Busch and Vickers aren't completely out of it yet. Since 2004, the final race before the Chase at Richmond International Raceway has seen three instances where drivers managed to squeak their way into the Chase despite being on the outside looking in going into the race.

In 2004, Jeremy Mayfield pulled off an improbable win to overcome a 55-point deficit and jumped six spots in the final standings to make the Chase. In 2005, Ryan Newman overtook Jamie McMurray after McMurray suffered a crash that left him 40th in the pivotal race -- and ultimately on the outside looking in when the final Chase field was decided.

The 2006 race at Richmond was the last time the lineup of Chase drivers changed after that race when Kasey Kahne finished third to knock Tony Stewart (finished 18th) out of the playoffs by 16 points. Ironically enough, Stewart won the then-Nextel Cup championship the year before, but was unable to defend his title.

In a further twist of irony, Stewart wound up stealing much of the thunder from the Chase competitors in 2006 by winning three of the 10 Chase races. Unfortunately for him, it went for naught, as he still was unable to finish any higher than 11th-place -- the first guy on the outside looking in.

Also, had NASCAR changed to the top-12 format before 2006 (it switched in 2007), a teammate battle between Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle would have seen Edwards miss the Chase thanks to Biffle's 6th-place finish.

As it was, neither made the Chase in 2006.

In the last two years, the deficit between 12th and 13th has been noticeably larger. In 2007, Dale Earnhardt Jr. entered Richmond out of 12th place by 128 points. His day didn't turn out any better as he finished the race 13th, leaving him 201 points out of the Chase.

Last year was very similar as Kahne slid to 69 points back of 12th place and never really challenged.

This year though has two drivers quite close to making the Chase, meaning we might just see an upset before Saturday night is over.