Setting Up 'Race to the Chase'

It's that time of year again. Sunday's race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway officially kicks off the "Race to the Chase," the 10-race stretch for a shot at the championship.

While there have been several surprises in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series this year, one of the biggest shocks as we close in on the Chase for the Sprint Cup is the absence of a clear-cut favorite for the championship. Last year's dominant teams at this time of the season were the 99 and 18, and the 24 and 48 in 2007, but we really don't have one in 2009, which bodes well for the sport.

We're 16 races into the season and have seen 10 different winners, and considering the big names who have yet to win, such as Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman, that number could easily reach 16 or 17 by the time we get to Homestead in November, a sign of incredible on-track competition.

I suspect the tight contests and lack of a breakout star stems from a combination of teams being in the second full season with the new car coupled with the testing ban. Crews finally have figured out what the car needs to drive well, evidenced by the fact we've had some surprise winners in David Reutimann, Brad Keselowski and Kasey Kahne.

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Equally interesting are the drivers in danger of not making the cut, as well as the ones who may squeak in for the first time ever. Here's how I break down some of the Chase contenders based on their weekly performances:

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick: Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick win the "snowball's chance in hell" award for making The Chase. To the chagrin of the entire Junior Nation, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has almost zero chance of sneaking inside the top 12. He sits 277 points outside the top 12 in 20th and nothing short of an absolute turnaround will earn Jr. a spot. The same goes for Kevin Harvick, who is 25th. Juan Pablo Montoya has been hanging tough lately and if he missed the next two races and Harvick won both, Montoya still would have the advantage. The performance just hasn't been there for Harvick or Dale Jr.

Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is not performing like many of us had expected after nine victories in 2008. His year has been one of feast or famine – if he doesn't win, he doesn't even finish inside the top 10 regularly. "Shrub" is tied with Mark Martin for the most wins this year at three, but he has only five top-10 finishes and only one since his May victory at Richmond. Something is amiss with his Joe Gibbs Racing team and I'm sure they're all scratching their heads trying to figure it out.

I am a big Kyle Busch fan and agree with Jeff Gordon that he's one of the most talented drivers to come along in a long time. But Busch's attitude leaves something to be desired and could be part of what is derailing his consistency. A driver's frame of mind is vital to his performance and Busch could use an attitude adjustment. I don't think he realizes how his blatant outrage or extreme disappointment with finishing second affects his team.

Richard Childress Racing: Something has been terribly "off" all year at RCR. The 29 and 07 teams swapped crews and crew chiefs in May and have had only a couple of high spots since then. Clint Bowyer carried the RCR banner early in the season but quickly dropped it and has fallen on hard times, as have Jeff Burton and Harvick, who are amidst a horrendous slump. Burton fell out of the top 12 Sunday at Infineon, although he and Bowyer remain the only hopes RCR has of putting a team in The Chase, but they're going to have to quickly step it up. On a positive note, Casey Mears and crew chief Todd Berrier seem to have clicked and have had a couple of flickers of hope.

Who's Out That Will Make It In? I predict the final spot in The Chase will be earned by Kahne and I'm not just jumping on the bandwagon because he won last Sunday. His No. 9 Richard Petty Motorsports team has been building him better cars and they've begun testing out the new Dodge motor, which appears much stronger than the older model.

Since Kahne is currently 13th in points, who will he knock out? It's too early to call but if I had to choose, I'd say Montoya will miss The Chase unless he starts ticking off some top-five finishes. That team has been consistent and run well but they're not finishing up front. They've had three consecutive top-10 finishes, but with the battle for the final Chase spot so close, they're going to need some top-five finishes soon.

Reutimann: While we'd all love to see David Reutimann qualify for The Chase, I don't think he will get there. His team is starting to show some inconsistency and they've still got another road course coming up, which has proven to be Reutimann's Achilles Heel.

Brian Vickers: Brian Vickers is capable of winning races and making The Chase but he and his team can't seem to put the beginning, middle and end of a race together. I think if they can get that first win together, more will follow, but until that happens, they probably won't contend for the championship.

One final midseason surprise is NASCAR's institution of the double-file restarts. I'd like to commend the sanctioning body for not being afraid to make a change in the middle of the year. I've always thought that the beginning of a race is the most exciting part of the event, but NASCAR has managed to continue that element throughout the entire race. Sonoma was a much more thrilling show as a result and I see no reason Sunday's event at Loudon won't be the same way.

Larry McReynolds is a renowned former crew chief in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series who led drivers that included Dale Earnhardt and Davey Allison. McReynolds now serves as a NASCAR analyst for SPEED and FOX Sports on race broadcasts and several programs, including Trackside Live and NASCAR Performance on SPEED. He earned 23 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series victories, 21 pole positions, 122 top-five and 209 top-10 finishes in 457 starts. McReynolds was awarded the 1998 UAW-GM Teamwork Award of Excellence and was named the Copenhagen/Skoal All Pro Crew Chief in 1991-1995. For more information on McReynolds or SPEED's programming schedule, please visit www.speedtv.com.