Smoke Will Win It All This Season

If I had said this six months ago, you would have insisted that I'd lost my last marble. But now the notion doesn't seem so crazy, does it? I pick Tony Stewart to win the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.

That's right - my money's on "Smoke" and I'm feeling pretty confident given the way he's behaving lately. Taking the point lead at Dover, and winning for the first time as a car owner a week later at Pocono, sealed the deal for me, but let me point out that six months ago I was in the minority who believed in the notion that Stewart-Haas Racing would actually succeed.

I don't make all that many prescient predictions so allow me to revel in this one; when Tony announced he was leaving the proven powerhouse Joe Gibbs Racing to assume half-ownership of a team that couldn't hit its backside with either hand, most folks assumed the worst. Haas CNC Racing was blessed with abundant resources, including the crucial technical assistance link to Hendrick Motorsports, but its owner was in prison on a tax rap and its drivers were lucky to finish in the 30s. Half ownership of that dud recalled the old saying "Half of nothing is still nothing."

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Thus the conventional wisdom at the time of Tony's announcement last summer, the prevailing view of Smoke's departure from Gibbs and the concomitant launch of the highest profile owner/driver attempt since Ricky Rudd actually won races in his own car back in the '90s, the buzz in the garage, on the 'Net and among the majority of fans was that Tony Stewart had screwed the pooch magnificently. His co-ownership of what is now Stewart-Haas Racing was characterized as a step toward semi-retirement, a "take-the-money-and-run" proposition and the end of his reign as a competitive factor in NASCAR racing.

For the record, I never bought any of that. In fact, I predicted that in his new role as owner/driver, Stewart would make the '09 Chase. Now that he is in fact leading the points, it's time to pull my arm out of the socket patting myself on the back.

So why did I believe Stewart would succeed as an owner/driver? Because I've been reporting on this guy since he was a teenager kicking butt in USAC cars and I've ever seen a more competitive human being. Smoke does not lose gracefully and I think that's a good thing.

I also noted that Tony has a pretty good track record as an owner, albeit of dirt track cars and nothing as ambitious as a Cup team. Still, ownership is ownership. It's about getting the right equipment, the right people and the right chemistry, then going out and kickin' ass. In other words, it's exactly what Stewart has done as a Cup car owner.

In retrospect, the facts seem so clear. Haas CNC, now Stewart-Haas Racing, is fundamentally a Hendrick Motorsports satellite team. It gets great hardware from the best organization in NASCAR. Tony has complimented good cars with good people, the key difference between the old team and the new team, and obviously he and Ryan Newman are a significant upgrade in the driver department.

Still, is it not a leap of faith to believe that midseason superiority will translate into a championship? Not the way I see it. Any way you slice it, Hendrick has the cars to beat. Others pursue but nobody is seriously threatening the HMS dominance. And among Hendrick drivers, I think Tony is the logical pick. Jimmie Johnson is seeking a fourth straight crown, which simply means the odds are stacked heavily against him; Gordon is playing hurt, his back trouble a weekly story; Martin, for all his success, is also bucking the odds – do we really think there will be another 50-something champion? And Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a non-factor. Who does that leave? Only your 2009 Sprint Cup champion, Tony Stewart.

Dave Despain, a veteran motorsports journalist, is the host of Wind Tunnel with Dave Despain on SPEED. A self-proclaimed failed motorcycle racer, Despain spent 10 years in American Motorcyclist Association (AMA) public relations and publishing and made his first television appearance on ABC Wide World of Sports as an analyst for the Daytona 200. He emerged on the NASCAR scene in the early 1970s when he joined Motor Racing Network (MRN) and was named host of Motorweek Illustrated on TBS in 1980. In addition to his on-air accomplishments, Despain served on the AMA Pro Racing Board in the 1990s and became a promoter in 1998 when he inaugurated the Dirt Track Hall of Fame Race in Springfield, Illinois, a race that paid a record $100,000 purse. He joined then-Speedvision in 2001 as the host of the weekly programs Bike Week and Motorcyclist. Wind Tunnel with Dave Despain on SPEED was born in 2003 and has become one of the network's most popular programs. For more information on Despain or SPEED's NASCAR programming, please visit www.speedtv.com.