Jimmie Johnson's 3rd Title Far From a Lock

Jimmie Johnson left Lowe's Motor Speedway with a 69-point lead Saturday night following the Bank of America 500, but don't fall in line with those in the NASCAR media who are already etching his name on the Sprint Cup trophy.

Why, you ask, should we not see Johnson as the clear favorite despite him winning the last two championships?

Well, just take a look back to one year ago.

Teammate Jeff Gordon had just won his 6th race of 2007, his second in-a-row, and had a 68-point lead in the championship standings over Johnson as the Chase for the Sprint Cup entered the last half of the ten race stretch.

Yes, Jeff Gordon was en route to finally winning his fifth NASCAR title.

But it didn't happen.

Johnson stepped his game immensely in the final stretch, winning the next five races and hammering Gordon over the final stretch in a 145-point swing to win it by 77 points. What's more impressive is that Gordon's worst finish over that stretch was a 10th-place run at Phoenix.

Knowing that and applying it to the current Chase standings, at the very least Johnson, Lowe's winner Jeff Burton, Carl Edwards, and possibly Clint Bowyer all have a fighting chance at the 2008 title. Burton sits 69 points back, Edwards is minus 168 and Bowyer trails by 185.

I'm certainly not expecting anyone to go on a four-race tear like Johnson did -- though Edwards is the most likely candidate to win at least two or three races in the final stretch -- but something as simple as an ill-advised move, a broken rear end, or brake problems at Martinsville for Johnson would drastically shake up the Chase standings.

Five races is a lot of laps for things to break or go wrong and given the extremely good luck Johnson has seen in the latter parts of his past two Chase championships, the odds that something will bite the No. 48 at some point have to be increased.

Johnson, crew chief Chad Knaus and the rest of the No. 48 team are likely the best on-track combination NASCAR has right now -- the two consecutive titles might back that up, eh? -- but there's not a team in the garage that isn't immune to silly part failures or even the Robby Gordon's of the NASCAR world.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

10-15-2008 @ 7:34AM

Kim said...

I will agree with you to an extent, Geoffrey. But as you also pointed out, Jimmie has one of the best crews and crew chiefs in all of NASCAR if not the best. They seem to really get their act together for Jimmie come chase time. I personally expected Jimmie to have his "mulligan" at Talladega as he usually gets caught up in something there. When it didn't happen and he wound up with a top ten finish (while playing it safe), I thought his team really knew and understood how to play it smart and watch the points game. I agree that at this point, it won't be Jimmie's team or Jimmie himself that will take him out, but rather a dumb part failure (although I highly doubt that) or an idiot driver (You failed to mention Michael Waltrip, LOL).

Wouldn't it be cool though, whether a fan of Johnson or not, to see him tie an all time record with one of the greatest, Cale Yarborough? I know as a fan of Jimmie's, I think it would be amazing and I would love to see it happen. Records weren't meant to stand forever, they were meant to be broken!

Kim

10-16-2008 @ 9:47AM

Don Emerson said...

Yes Kim, records are meant to be broken, too bad we have no control over who breaks them. Why shouldn't Johnson win,, after all he has the best ride in Nascar. But to compare him to Cale Yarborough is an insult to race fans who really know the sport. I doubt Johnson could have completed a 100 laps in the cars that Cale drove before melting like a popsicle on a sunny day. In the old days it took men to drive the cars, not the sissified light weights who call themselves drivers today. Don't waste your time making foolish comparisons. Works for me......

10-16-2008 @ 11:11AM

Don,

I never once said that Jimmie was a driver of Cale's calibar. I am well aware of the difference in today's cars and drivers versus those of the past. As I said on the other blog, I grew up watching racing with my Dad who was a huge Yarborough fan. Although I didn't like it at the time, it sure looked like it wasn't easy. It still isn't. Times have changed, drivers have evolved, as have the race cars, and tracks. Jimmie is the best driver of our current era in my opinion. Cale was one of the best of the past. Do you think if Cale were around today or if King Richard Petty got behind the wheel of one of today's cars, they could be as successful as Johnson? Highly doubtfull. In fact Richard Petty has said the very same thing of himself.

See Don, that's your problem most of the time. You are stuck in the past, not willing to except racing for what it is today. Yes, it's different, but so is every other sport now a days. Times, (whether good or bad), they are a changin. You can either get on board for the ride, or continue to wallow around about the past.

Jimmie tying Cale's record will put him in the record books. Whether you believe he deserves it or not, I personally do.

Kim